Residents of the Yucatán Peninsula who spent last fall waiting for sweater weather may get more of it this season.
Yucatecan meteorologist Juan Antonio Palma Solís projects that about 25 cold fronts will reach the Peninsula between October and April. That’s three more than the regional average of 22. Palma Solís, who coordinates the forecasting service Meteored México, said the figures are approximate and could change as atmospheric patterns develop.
The season got off to a slow start. A front expected in late October arrived weak, though it still helped close out the month with cooler air and a few chilly mornings.
The bigger shift should come in December, when fronts are expected to arrive more often and possibly with stronger cold air behind them. Palma Solís also said the season’s first systems, especially those in November and December, could bring more rain.
The coldest weather is most likely early next year. As sea temperatures drop over the winter, cold air masses take longer to warm and can linger over the region. That could mean spells of up to a week of heladez — local slang for a cold snap — in January and February.
How the season could unfold
In a September projection, Palma Solís estimated one front in October, three in November, four in December, six each in January and February, three in March and two in April. During the coldest stretches, overnight lows in the Peninsula’s southern zone could fall as far as 5°C (41°F).
Cold fronts here often bring nortes, strong north winds that kick up waves along the Gulf coast and can knock down trees and power lines in Mérida. Each season, the group Meteorología Yucatán gives the fronts that reach the Peninsula Maya names tied to towns and communities in the region.
A strong El Niño behind the forecast
Nationally, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service, or SMN, expects 56 cold fronts for the 2026-2027 season, which runs from September through May. That’s above the 1990-2020 average of 50. The two numbers measure different things. The SMN counts every front that enters Mexico, while the regional forecast counts only those that reach the Peninsula.
Driving the higher numbers is El Niño, the periodic warming of Pacific waters that shifts weather patterns around the world. SMN official Fabián Vázquez Romaña said El Niño should reach peak strength between October and December, with effects lasting into spring 2027. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts the odds that it reaches “very strong” status this fall and winter at better than 90%.
Yucatán’s state civil protection agency, Procivy, has its own count. In September, it forecast 29 fronts for the state from September through April, with January the busiest month at six. The agency cautioned that more fronts don’t automatically mean colder weather, since each front’s punch depends on the air mass that follows it.
A different picture from last winter
The 2025-2026 season was forecast to run warm under La Niña, El Niño’s cooler counterpart. It didn’t fully play out that way. An Arctic air mass arrived around New Year’s, and in late January, cold front No. 30 brought a 13-day run of chilly weather. Mérida recorded one of its coldest mornings in more than a decade.
For now, conditions remain mild. Palma Solís said the first week of November should be hot during the day with fresh nights and no heladez in the forecast. A new front could bring heavier rain this weekend, with effects possibly lasting into early next week.
Fast Facts
• Projected cold fronts for the Yucatán Peninsula, October-April: about 25
• Regional average: 22
• SMN forecast for all of Mexico, September-May: 56
• National average: 50
• Procivy forecast for Yucatán state, September-April: 29
• Expected coldest months: January and February
• Possible lows in the southern Peninsula: 5°C (41°F)
• Next front: expected this weekend
Sources: Diario de Yucatán, Por Esto, El Imparcial, UnoTV, Expansión, La Verdad